Job Market Paper
Understanding changes over time in the receipt of workers’ compensation benefits
Abstract: Workers’ compensation, the oldest social insurance program in the United States, continues to serve as an important safety net for the vast majority of the workforce. The program supports workers at a particularly vulnerable time: immediately after suffering an occupational injury or illness. Yet, despite this vital role in supporting workers, less is known about the program’s long-term trends in recipiency. To understand these trends, I used a descriptive decomposition framework to systematically investigate the reasons for the 43.6 percent decrease in the recipiency rate of cash benefits over the period from 2003 through 2018. I find that 68 percent of this decrease—29.5 percentage points—is associated with improvements to workplace safety.
Working Papers
Spillovers from workers’ compensation to Social Security Disability Insurance: evidence from Oregon
Abstract: The two most important safety nets for workers suffering occupational injuries and illnesses are workers’ compensation programs and Social Security Disability Insurance. Workers’ compensation is the oldest social insurance program in the United States and Social Security Disability Insurance is the largest provider of cash benefits to individuals with a disability. The programs are linked because the injuries and illnesses that workers suffer can satisfy the requirements of both programs. In this paper, I examined the impact of an Oregon law (SB 757) that changed the calculation of a type of benefit provided under workers’ compensation called permanent partial disability. This study was designed to answer whether these changes led to spillover effects to applications for Social Security Disability Insurance. Using a difference-in-differences framework applied to data from the Social Security Administration, I did not find statistically significant results indicative of such effects.
Understanding changes over time in awards for workers’ compensation benefits: evidence from Oregon
Abstract: Prior work (Fulmer, 2025) documented a substantial long-term decrease in the receipt of workers’ compensation benefits, largely attributable to improvements in workplace safety. However, by observing only benefit awards, that paper could not explore the roles of worker applications versus stricter insurer award decisions in driving this trend. This paper exploited aggregate administrative data from Oregon from 2003 through 2018 to achieve this more complete understanding. I found that a 35.7 percent decrease in the rate of recordable occupational injuries and illnesses explained nearly all (95.0 percent) of the 37.6 percent decrease in the rate of applications and fully explained the 35.5 percent decrease in the rate of awards.