Job Market Paper
Understanding changes over time in the receipt of workers’ compensation benefits
Project Summary: A mathematical trend decomposition utilizing survey data to isolate the components of a 43.6 percent decrease in benefit recipiency
Abstract: Workers’ compensation, the oldest social insurance program in the United States, continues to serve as an important safety net for the vast majority of the workforce. The program supports workers at a particularly vulnerable time: immediately after suffering an occupational injury or illness. Yet, despite this vital role in supporting workers, less is known about the program’s long-term trends in recipiency. To understand these trends, I used a descriptive decomposition framework to systematically investigate the reasons for the 43.6 percent decrease in the recipiency rate of cash benefits over the period from 2003 through 2018. I find that 68 percent of this decrease—29.5 percentage points—is associated with improvements to workplace safety.
Data Analysis
Interactive Dashboard: Operational Analysis of Social Security Administration Pending Caseload
Project Summary: An operational audit of performance across the Disability Determination Services of 50 states and Washington, D.C.
Methodology & Definitions
This analysis utilizes SSA State Agency Monthly Workload (SA MOWL) data on claims for Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income sent to state Disability Determination Services. The derived metrics are constructed from three core administrative variables, where (All Initial) refers to claims for Social Security Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income, or both:
- [Receipts (All Initial)]: The total count of new initial claims received by the state Disability Determination Service in the reporting month.
- [Determinations (All Initial)]: The total count of initial claims cleared by the state Disability Determination Service in the reporting month.
- [Closing Pending (All Initial)]: The total count of initial claims not cleared by the state Disability Determination Service at the end of the reporting month.
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Pending Caseload Intensity
Formula: [Closing Pending (All Initial)] / [Receipts (All Initial)]
This metric measures “Months of Inventory.” It normalizes the size of the pending caseload relative to the office’s current intake volume. For example, a value of 4.0 indicates that the state holds four months’ worth of work in its queue at current intake rates. Higher values indicate higher intensity, regardless of the state’s size. -
Clearance Ratio
Formula: [Determinations (All Initial)] / [Receipts (All Initial)]
This measures the agency’s ability to keep pace with incoming work. A ratio greater than 1.0 indicates the agency is clearing cases faster than they arrive (reducing the caseload), while a ratio less than 1.0 indicates the caseload is growing. -
Net Pending Caseload Growth
Formula: [Receipts (All Initial)] - [Determinations (All Initial)]
This represents the raw volume added to the caseload in a given month. A positive value means intake exceeded clearance, while a negative value means the agency successfully reduced its total inventory. -
Operational Status
States are segmented based on the interaction between their Pending Caseload Intensity and Clearance Ratio:- Overloaded: (Intensity > Average; Clearance Ratio < 1.0) – Higher inventory levels relative to intake; determinations are lagging behind receipts (net growth).
- Accumulating: (Intensity < Average; Clearance Ratio < 1.0) – Lower inventory levels relative to intake; determinations are lagging behind receipts (net growth).
- High Volume: (Intensity > Average; Clearance Ratio ≥ 1.0) – Higher inventory levels relative to intake; determinations are keeping pace with or exceeding receipts (equilibrium or net reduction).
- Stable: (Intensity < Average; Clearance Ratio ≥ 1.0) – Lower inventory levels relative to intake; determinations are keeping pace with or exceeding receipts (equilibrium or net reduction).
Working Papers
Spillovers from workers’ compensation to Social Security Disability Insurance: evidence from Oregon
Abstract: The two most important safety nets for workers suffering occupational injuries and illnesses are workers’ compensation programs and Social Security Disability Insurance. Workers’ compensation is the oldest social insurance program in the United States and Social Security Disability Insurance is the largest provider of cash benefits to individuals with a disability. The programs are linked because the injuries and illnesses that workers suffer can satisfy the requirements of both programs. In this paper, I examined the impact of an Oregon law (SB 757) that changed the calculation of a type of benefit provided under workers’ compensation called permanent partial disability. This study was designed to answer whether these changes led to spillover effects to applications for Social Security Disability Insurance. Using a difference-in-differences framework applied to data from the Social Security Administration, I did not find statistically significant results indicative of such effects.
Understanding changes over time in awards for workers’ compensation benefits: evidence from Oregon
Abstract: Prior work (Fulmer, 2025) documented a substantial long-term decrease in the receipt of workers’ compensation benefits, largely attributable to improvements in workplace safety. However, by observing only benefit awards, that paper could not explore the roles of worker applications versus stricter insurer award decisions in driving this trend. This paper exploited aggregate administrative data from Oregon from 2003 through 2018 to achieve this more complete understanding. I found that a 35.7 percent decrease in the rate of recordable occupational injuries and illnesses explained nearly all (95.0 percent) of the 37.6 percent decrease in the rate of applications and fully explained the 35.5 percent decrease in the rate of awards.